Germany’s 49-Euro Ticket: A Case Study in Affordable Public Transport and its Impact on Modal Shift
A recent study has revealed the significant impact of Germany’s state-subsidized 49-euro “Deutschland-Ticket” on transportation habits. This ticket, allowing nationwide travel on local and regional buses and trains for a fixed monthly price, has demonstrably shifted commuters from roads to railways. Research conducted by the Berlin-based climate research institute MCC (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change) as part of the Ariadne energy transition project, funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research, highlights these findings. However, a planned price increase to 58 euros per month threatens to reverse a substantial portion of these positive changes. Detailed results are available on the interactive web-based “Ariadne D-Ticket Impact Tracker”.
The study analyzed the first year of the Deutschland-Ticket, launched on May 1, 2023. Researchers examined mobile phone and car movement data across Germany, comparing it with data from a control group of eight other European countries. This rigorous methodology enabled them to isolate the causal effect of the Deutschland-Ticket on people’s travel behavior.
A busy train station in Cologne, Germany, showcasing the increased rail travel due to the affordable 49-euro public transport ticket.
The findings indicate a remarkable 30.4 percent increase in train journeys exceeding 30 kilometers thanks to the 49-euro ticket, compared to the projected scenario without it. Conversely, private car usage decreased across all distances, with a 7.6 percent reduction in kilometers traveled by car. While the total number of trips across all modes of transport remained consistent, the modal share of train travel rose from approximately 10 percent to 12 percent. This shift resulted in an estimated reduction of 6.7 million tonnes of CO2 emissions, representing 4.7 percent of Germany’s total transport emissions.
Furthermore, the researchers’ analysis extends to predicting the consequences of the announced price increase. Following a decision by German state transport ministers on September 23, 2024, the Deutschland-Ticket is set to rise from 49 to 58 euros per month. The research team projects that this price hike could lead to a 14 percent decrease in train journeys and a 3.5 percent increase in car travel. Consequently, the emission reductions achieved by the 49-euro ticket in its initial year could be nearly halved by this price adjustment.
For a comprehensive understanding of the statistical impact analysis, including changes in mobility patterns, regional variations, and the extent of emission reductions, the interactive German-language Ariadne D-Ticket Impact Tracker is available online.
Explore the D-Ticket Impact Tracker: https://mcc-berlin-ariadne.shinyapps.io/dticket-tracker/